The Crow's Nest

Violence Alert - May 19, 2012 (video)

Sat, 19 May 2012 15:10:47 GMT

Social mood patterns indicate elevated risk of violent protests, outbreaks, and/or terrorist activity in the immediate future.

Energized & Angry: Social Mood Snapshot 5/18/12 (video)

Fri, 18 May 2012 13:52:54 GMT

Using top Google Hot Trends, a picture of society's mood is presented by animated talk show characters.

Romney Hangs On - Election Update 5/17/12 (video)

Thu, 17 May 2012 17:10:11 GMT

Latest numbers projected via U.S. social mood. Romney is ahead, but surge may be over.

Social Mood Snapshot 5/12/12 (video)

Sat, 12 May 2012 20:47:28 GMT

Using top Google Hot Trends, a picture of society's mood is presented by animated talk show characters.

Romney passes Obama - Election Update 5/11/12 (video)

Fri, 11 May 2012 18:53:20 GMT

Latest numbers projected through analysis of U.S. social mood. Romney is now ahead.

U.S. Presidential Election Update 5/8/12 (video)

Tue, 08 May 2012 15:58:46 GMT

Latest numbers projected via U.S. social mood. Romney shows slightly ahead.

U.S. Presidential Election Update- 4/30/12 (video)

Mon, 30 Apr 2012 16:48:15 GMT

Latest numbers projected through analysis of U.S. social mood.

The Downward Spiral Begins-May 2012 (video)

Sat, 28 Apr 2012 22:47:33 GMT

Social mood patterns indicate that May completes a transition to a downward trend in social mood and socioeconomic stability.

U.S. Election Update - April 25, 2012 (video)

Sun, 22 Apr 2012 14:20:41 GMT

Latest presidential numbers projected through analysis of U.S. social mood.

U.S. Election Update 4/17/12 (video)

Tue, 17 Apr 2012 13:50:12 GMT

Latest presidential numbers projected through analysis of U.S. social mood.

Social Mood and Stock Market Top (video)

Wed, 04 Apr 2012 00:14:11 GMT

Social mood patterns derived from Google Hot Trends and U.S. News indicate a top in mood and market is in progress and within days of confirmation.

Update 4/12/12: World stock markets face "risk off" road ahead

Major Top in Mood and Market, Confirmation Nears

Thu, 29 Mar 2012 20:24:20 GMT

A major top in collective or social mood is in progress. One of the manifestations of the soon to follow decline in social mood is a protracted stock market decline. Economic contraction, social upheaval, geopolitical discord, and environmental distress are some of the other likely "symptoms" of this decline. This is the next stair step down in a larger unraveling. Once it begins, it may take two or three years to reach the next plateau.

The post on March 3, that a major market top was in progress was accompanied by the chart below. The Market Mood Model, which converts social mood patterns into stock market expectations, produced the tell-tale topping spike in the Google Hot Trends Signal chart, indicating the very beginning of the end of a long rally.

As of today, the Google Hot Trends Signal chart (below) shows the topping is still in progress, but within a whisper of a breakdown. Should the mood signal break below the dashed green line, that would indicate that a sharp decline was imminent.

Another chart produced from U.S. News stories (below), shows a divergent mood signal. What seems more likely-- a sharp market drop or a rise in the U.S. News mood signal?

The social mood indicated by Google Hot Trends and from the U.S. News is at a critical juncture. What is now a topping process, could be confirmed to be a downtrend within just a few days. The sharp drop in mood following this top is likely to be accompanied by more than "just" a market decline. Stay tuned.

April 2012 Socioeconomic, Geopolitical, and Environmental Outlook (video)

Mon, 26 Mar 2012 00:53:33 GMT

Analysis of social mood and perception for April 2012, and likely associated socioeconomic, geopolitical, and natural events.

Major Market Top in Progress

Sat, 03 Mar 2012 16:05:02 GMT

An interesting artifact of charting the Market Mood Model's output of Google Hot Trends vs. the S&P has become a "topping" indicator (see chart). Over the past week, as the market eeked out only modest gains, the model's output surged-- a topping indication. Also, the current social mood configuration (not shown) is the opposite of the "green shoots" configuration occuring in March 2009 (a major market bottom). Together, these indicate a high probability of a major top in progress.

Should this be the case, when the topping process now underway is complete, both social mood and the markets should decline substantially over a prolonged period. For more information on the Market Mood Model and how Google Trends tracks the stock market see the "Mood and the Markets" tab at MoodCompass.com.

March 2012 Socioeconomic, Geopolitical, and Environmental Outlook (video)

Sat, 25 Feb 2012 08:30:36 GMT

Analysis of social mood and perception for March 2012, and likely associated socioeconomic, geopolitical, and natural events.

Actual events (last updated 4/1/12):
March 11 - C hina economy slows; increased trade deficit
March 12 - Palestinians fire 100 rockets at Israel last few days
March 14 - Earthquake shakes Tokyo; 1 causes small tsunami
March 20 - 7.4 quake hits near Alcapulco, Mexico
March 20 - France: Gunman attacks Toulouse Jewish school
March 26 - Tokyo soil would be considered radioactive waste in the U.S.
March 31 - Bombs in southern Thailand injure 340; kill 14

MoodCompass in the News!

Sun, 12 Feb 2012 00:29:06 GMT

Our research in forecasting global mood and perception made the TV News!

WBKO original: http://www.wbko.com/home/headlines/Group_Using_Research_to_Predict_Disasters__Global_Events_138962294.html

WNKY original: http://www.wnky.net/news/139089249.html?video=pop&t=a

2012 - B Grade Disaster Movie Yes, but not "The End"

Mon, 16 Jan 2012 20:15:39 GMT

Those who are looking for 2012 to mark the "End of the World" may be dissappointed. 2013 is likely to show up on schedule. However, for those who like an action packed B movie story line, you may enjoy watching the show. Here's a prelimary description of our analysis of collective mood and perception for 2012:

The roller coaster is making its slow climb to the top as the year begins. Somewhere around January 23rd it stops moving as it reaches the apex. It slowly makes its way over the top, and the world gasps as it looks at how high up it is, and how far down we all must go before the end of the ride. The decent begins as we collectively scream over the next few months, "here we go!"

The character development was brief, but the players are familiar. Of course there is the Israel, Iran, Syria, and rest of the Middle East cast. Around February, Japan returns for more radioactive fun, but with added societal unrest and destabilization. Oh, and don't forget the Wall Street Wonders. How could the show be complete without some type of incredible stock market crash? By April, things should really be moving fast, and all may wonder how anyone could take much more, but that's when of course there is a moment of pause and another smaller climb back up. Europe is seriously in trouble (yes, much more than at the year's beginning) by the time June gets here.

Scattered throughout the picture, in no particular order, there are earthquakes and volcanoes and impactful high energy storms wreaking havoc on daily routines and livlihoods. Resource scarcity reaches crisis levels in some areas, and wars or near wars over them is not out of the question. There are increasing groups of fed up people who have decided they have nothing more to lose, and there's a new appearance this year: unrest in the United States rising to a new level which may even at times rival scenes from faraway lands.

So, find a comfortable chair and some popcorn, if you are so priveledged as to not be a part of the show yourself this year. If you find it being too much, turn off the news and watch a movie, one of the Hollywood type. You won't miss anything, really. There's always 2013.

Panic, Violence, and Justice - Dec '11

Tue, 06 Dec 2011 21:26:31 GMT

Highlights: Persian Gulf escalation ∙ Increased risk of terrorist activity ∙ More protests ∙ Surge in gas prices near Christmas

While shoring up the economy continues to be a concern as the month begins, worries about global instability expand beyond corporate profits and credit availability in December. Pervasive anxiety accompany negative news headlines as lawmakers and leaders squabble and stubbornly oppose cooperation on needed solutions. Mid to late month the focus is on global unrest, aggression, and possible eruptions of violence. During this period, there is an elevated risk of terrorist activity. Although it is unlikely that Israel will bomb Iran this month, the Persian Gulf situation may reach crisis levels, and a surge in the price of crude oil and gasoline may make Christmas traveling especially difficult. The U.S. government could find itself with an even lower public opinion, and very near a lowered credit rating by the end of the month.

Socioeconomic and Geopolitical events:
There are four major periods indicated for December --

December 7 - 13 Paradigm Shift.

December 14 - 22 Global Aggression.
December 23 - 27 Panic and Bad News.
December 28 - 31 Reset.

(further details available in the full version of MoodCompass)

The above is an excerpt from the December 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Persian Gulf Escalation - Dec '11 (video)

Fri, 02 Dec 2011 04:51:13 GMT

Analysis of changes in collective mood and perception indicate a high risk of geopolitical escalation in the Persian Gulf in December 2011.

Persian Gulf Escalation - December 2011

Sun, 20 Nov 2011 00:27:04 GMT

There has been much discussion of Iran lately, and concerns with a possible U.S. aided Israeli strike are high. While our analysis of global mood and perception for the month of December indeed indicates an escalation of the Persian Gulf situation, it does NOT support the likelihood of an Israeli airstrike, at least in December. With the primary geopolitical risk area indicated being the Persian Gulf (see map on right), one possible scenario is a naval buildup or blockade within the Gulf. Note that Israel is not indicated as a likely initiator of hostilities. Also the global distress that would result from an outright attack on Iran is missing from the social map (below). It should be noted that the social mood factor that is labled "economic" in this map, besides indicating a contraction in spending, also corresponds with risk avoidance, anxiety, and wanting to stay close to family and home. From this, it seems very likely that residents of the region surrounding the Persian Gulf will be much less sure of their near-term safety in December.

Actual events:
12/1/11: Israel: No Iran strike 'for the moment'
12/4/11: Iran reports downing U.S. drone
12/5/11: Iran warns of wider response
12/11/11: Iran refuses to return U.S. drone; warns of response to 'hostile' act
12/12/11: Iran hints at closing straits of Hormuz
12/13/11: Iran to hold military drill for closing straits of Hormuz
12/22/11: Iran's war games could force US into aggression
12/23/11: Iran to start 10 day war games in int'l waters tomorrow

China unrest (as per social map):
12/14/11: China increasing security around embassy after window shot; Chinese village locked in rebellion

China and the Middle East - Erupting this month?

Fri, 04 Nov 2011 01:06:24 GMT

Protests and outrage over governmental failings and corporate greed have been on the rise. A surprising factor to add to the mix this month may be the people of China, as analysis of global societal mood factors show "panic" and "outrage" peaking in the People's Republic in November (see map below). This is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Also, North Africa and the Middle East are again showing up as hot beds of protests, unrest, and/or violence, in spite of Ghaddafi's reign being at an end (see map). This indicates a significant increase in social chaos from recent days. This configuration also indicates an increased risk of terrorist activity in the region.

Last, but not least, the developing events in Kosovo bear close watching. Because Kosovo is within the region showing risks of escalation of unrest and violence, an already volatile situation may become critical.

Actual Events:
11/5/11: 67 dead in northeast Nigeria attacks
11/7/11: Official Israeli websites brought down by "malfunction"
11/9/11: Beijing residents cry foul over the air
11/11/11: 13+ killed in Syria protest violence
11/12/11: Pro-Assad crowd attacks Saudi embassy in Syria
11/15/11: Syrian activists rip flag from Jordanian embassy
11/17/11: Syria close to civil war; Syrian army shells villages after defectors attack
11/18/11: Thousands protest in Egypt against military rule
11/19/11: Egyptian protesters and police clash in Tahrir Square; Violence erupts in Cairo
11/21/11: New clashes in key Cairo square after bloody weekend
11/24/11: Syrian tanks bombard defectors

Teetering on the Edge (Again) - Nov 2011

Mon, 31 Oct 2011 18:58:19 GMT

Highlights: High risk of U.S. Government budget impasse ∙ Increased risk of terrorist activity ∙ Extreme societal tension and polarization ∙ In Nature: Heavy rain and snow near the holidays.

November looks like a busy month for world leaders, as they continue to try to manufacture growth where little can be found. There is a high risk of a U.S. budget impasse that does not get resolved in time. The U.S. government perception cycles show high activity (battles) through November 17 (the deadline), shifting to dialogue and negotiations through the 22nd. The timing would suggest an agreement not reached in time, causing increased societal distress and further distrust of the government as the holidays approach.

There is a heightened global risk for terrorist activity mid-month, along with increased protests, and possible increase in "random acts" of violence. In the natural world, an increased chance of heavy rain and snow near the holidays should make travel interesting.

Socioeconomic and Geopolitical events:
There are three major periods indicated for November --

November 1 - 8 Into Action.
November 9 - 17 Turbulence.
November 18 -30 It's the Economy, Stupid.
(further details available in the full version of MoodCompass)

Global natural events:
November 4 - 16 Active, In Motion. Nature is in the news. Elevated risk of unusual or increased tectonic activity.
November 16 - 28 Wet, Stormy. Increased risk of heavy rain and snow.

The above is an excerpt from the November 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

1, 2, 3 Go! -- The Trigger Point

Sat, 22 Oct 2011 14:47:04 GMT

Whatever global leaders achieve this weekend in their strategic talks, it is unlikely to be global stability, at least in the near term. The October issue of MoodCompass shows a shift in the perception of global leaders, from "into action" to "delusional" or "in denial" early next week. This indicates that whatever they come up with, whatever actions they might take, are likely to be seen as insufficient or ineffective.

On a societal level, the collective mood is emotional and irrational. People may tend to display irrational or panic behavior, ignoring facts in their decision-making process. This configuration, in the short term, is often destabilizing to markets, and frequently accompanies increasing volatility.

Excerpt from the October MoodCompass:

October 19 - 31. Trigger Point. Increasing instability. People may be displaying irrational or panic behavior. Global leaders are putting high level plans into action.

A Glitch in the Global Matrix

Sat, 15 Oct 2011 20:07:04 GMT

One can see the European crisis and market turmoil coming to a peak October 3rd and 4th reflected in this excerpt below from the October issue of MoodCompass. October 4th brought in the period in which the social mood reflected a sense of "new life," as forecasted. In the short time horizon of market traders and politicians, this was reflected in global stock market rallies, and political negotiations that showed hope of possibly moving past deadlock.

So what of the current phase entitled "A Glitch?" The G20 is in negotiations this weekend. Are they going to break down or be otherwise ineffective as this "chapter" unfolds? Do global protests begin to appear out of control or become violent in some way? Something the larger society considers "crazy," "surprising," "contrary," and possibly violent is the likely manifestation of the current configuration. If possible, staying close to home and staying informed of the latest events may be a prudent course of action.

From the October MoodCompass:
October 1 - 3 An Ending. Risk aversion is high. Focus on global economy and stability. Geopolitical issues.

October 4 - 12 A New Start. Global leaders focused on calming things down and restabilizing the global system. U.S.. government searches for common ground between various groups in dialogue and negotiations.

October 13 - 18 A Glitch. Discussions and negotiations may break down. There's an increased risk of protests, terrorist activity, and "random acts' of violence.

Strategizing Stability - October 2011

Mon, 03 Oct 2011 03:04:12 GMT

October Highlights: Discussion, dialogue, and negotiations∙ Increased risk of terrorist activity ∙ Grass roots protests and movements on the rise ∙ In Nature: Increased volcano and earthquake risk.

Socioeconomic and Geopolitical events:
There are four major periods indicated for October--

October 1 - 3    An Ending.
October 4 - 12    A New Start.
October 13 - 18 A Glitch.
October 19 - 31   Trigger Point.

(further details are available in the October issue of MoodCompass)

Global natural events:

October 1-11 Hot, Active. High energy in the system may enhance storms and flooding. Increased risk of volcanic activity.

October 12 - 18 Windy, Stormy.

October 19 - 31 Unstable. Increased risk of moderate earthquakes.

The above is an excerpt from the October 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles. .